Via Overcoming Bias I learn of a cool new website called Wrong Tomorrow. It essentially tracks predictions made by pundits and judges whether or not they come true. Sounds straightforward, and perhaps a good way to increase the cost of poor predictions, increasing the overall quality of predictions.The best prediction on the site is definitely high-rolling televangelist Pat Robertson's.
"The Lord said the dollar is going to go down dramatically, and when all this happens we will begin to have what is known as hyperinflation...If I'm hearing him right, gold will go to about $1900 dollars an ounce and oil to $300 a barrel."Now it may well be that God provides Pat Robertson with commodity price forecasts. Call me sceptical, but I would be interested however to know Robertson's financial portfolio, in particular his position (if any) on the price of these goods.
It seems that this sort of thing wouldn't be too hard to do. All Barack Obama would have to do would be to go massively short on oil, then announce a $500b plan to make solar cars. Obviously others before me have thought of this, which is why political figures in the US release their personal financial dealings and positions for public scrutiny. But it seems that influential figures with little to do with financial markets like Robertson manage to slip through that net.
Note: Jawboning is generally used only with respect to Governments and central banks trying to manipulate prices in an economy. My title is therefore incorrect, but my ability to generate alliterative witticisms is weak enough as it is, so I should probably take what I can get.